The X Factor

What kind of campaign is Ottawa having in 2026: change, anger, or status quo? Along with Evan Potter, we dig into the week’s numbers: the Leiper campaign’s eyebrow-raising internal figure of 43.67%, the 12-point gap with Liaison Strategies’ June poll, and what Polymarket Canada’s thinly traded odds do (and don’t) tell us. Plus: why organization wins campaigns, the “X factor” of 40,000 irregular voters, a polling 101 on probability samples, and early read-outs on the prep work of all four major candidates.