I knew it was a good idea to team up with an academic to analyze and dissect the 2026 municipal campaign. Evan brings the data and I provide the sass and the occasional swear word.
As of the time of recording (Friday afternoon), there were five candidates for mayor: Mark Sutcliffe (incumbent, favourite to win so far), progressive Jeff Leiper in second place, conservative Alex Lawson in third place, progressive Neil Saravanamuttoo in fourth and Zed Chebib dead last. Of the 24 councillors, 22 said they were running again and of those, six are unchallenged so far. The only two wards that are open are Kitchissippi where I live (it was represented by Jeff Leiper who’s now running for mayor) and Stittsville where eight candidates are vying to replace outgoing Coun. Glen Gower.
We talk about accountability, lobbying and transit. Yesterday I saw the first full LRT train in months! I was cycling home from Plant bath after a vigorous swim workout, going uphill, and I was still going faster than the train. Some transit system we’ve got.
The part of our conversation I enjoyed the most was Evan noticing that in a handful of rural and conservative wards, there may be a way for Alex Lawson to deny enough votes to Mark Sutcliffe to cost the mayor his second term. Obviously it’s too early to tell at this point, but the likelihood of that happening isn’t zero, judging by the mood in those wards. It would be funny, though, if Lawson managed to eat into Sutcliffe’s numbers enough that progressive Leiper squeezed through.
All this to say, I am super interested to hear from voters in rural wards. Especially those of you who voted for Sutcliffe last time and might be tempted by a more conservative candidate this year. I’d love to know what you’re thinking and why. Get in touch!
